PMXTERMINALBeta

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

20 outcomes · 6 on both platforms · $361.5K total volume · Tariffs

Price history - top outcomes

CandidatePolymarketAlphaKalshi
India
P $64.0K Vol.
21.5%
Yes 23.0¢No 80.0¢
7.0%10.0%
13%
Yes 16.0¢No 90.0¢
Indonesia
P $19.1K Vol.
14%
Yes 15.0¢No 87.0¢
1.0%3.0%
13%
Yes 16.0¢No 90.0¢
Taiwan
P $32.6K Vol.K $900 Vol.
12.6%
Yes 14.1¢No 89.0¢
0.1%2.0%
11.5%
Yes 14.0¢No 91.0¢
Argentina
P $22.2K Vol.K $1.9K Vol.
11.5%
Yes 14.0¢No 91.0¢
6.0%8.0%
18.5%
Yes 20.0¢No 83.0¢
United Kingdom
P $477 Vol.K $126 Vol.
10%
Yes 13.0¢No 93.0¢
3.0%3.0%
13%
Yes 16.0¢No 90.0¢
European Union
P $13.1K Vol.K $172 Vol.
9.3%
Yes 11.1¢No 92.6¢
5.9%4.6%
14.5%
Yes 17.0¢No 88.0¢
South Korea
P $57.3K Vol.
20%
Yes 23.0¢No 83.0¢
··
–
Mexico
P $2.7K Vol.
16.5%
Yes 19.0¢No 86.0¢
··
–
Israel
P $433 Vol.
16%
Yes 19.0¢No 87.0¢
··
–
Vietnam
P $5.6K Vol.
15%
Yes 18.0¢No 88.0¢
··
–
Japan
P $17.1K Vol.
13.5%
Yes 19.0¢No 92.0¢
··
–
Pakistan
P $105.3K Vol.
11.5%
Yes 12.0¢No 89.0¢
··
–
South Africa
P $419 Vol.
11%
Yes 13.0¢No 91.0¢
··
–
Australia
P $6.2K Vol.
9%
Yes 10.0¢No 92.0¢
··
–
Canada
P $2.8K Vol.
8.5%
Yes 9.0¢No 92.0¢
··
–
Russia
P $2.1K Vol.
8%
Yes 9.0¢No 93.0¢
··
–
Brazil
P $4.3K Vol.
7.5%
Yes 10.0¢No 95.0¢
··
–
China
K $1.9K Vol.
–
··
16%
Yes 17.0¢No 85.0¢
Switzerland
$0 Vol.
–
··
10%
Yes 13.0¢No 93.0¢
Kenya
K $901 Vol.
–
··
9.5%
Yes 12.0¢No 93.0¢

Arbitrage opportunities

Expires in 5 months • Dec 31, 2026

India

YES on Kalshi16.0¢NO on Polymarket80.0¢

P $64.0K

2.42%-3.75% net4.17% gross

Expires in 5 months • Dec 31, 2026

Argentina

YES on Polymarket14.0¢NO on Kalshi83.0¢

P $22.2K|K $1.9K

1.32%-2.74% net3.09% gross

Estimates from latest executable asks; fees, slippage and settlement rules vary. Not guaranteed profit.