PMXTERMINALBeta

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

18 outcomes · 5 on both platforms · $43.7M total volume · Politics

Price history - top outcomes

CandidatePolymarketAlphaKalshi
December
P $3.7K Vol.K $276.9K Vol.
13.5%
Yes 15.0¢No 88.0¢
19%21%
33.5%
Yes 34.0¢No 67.0¢
October
P $1.5K Vol.K $1.1M Vol.
12.5%
Yes 14.0¢No 89.0¢
6.0%6.0%
18.5%
Yes 20.0¢No 83.0¢
September
P $2.4K Vol.K $1.5M Vol.
9%
Yes 10.0¢No 92.0¢
1.0%1.0%
10%
Yes 11.0¢No 91.0¢
November
P $1.5K Vol.K $313.0K Vol.
8%
Yes 9.0¢No 93.0¢
18%19%
26.5%
Yes 27.0¢No 74.0¢
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
P $37.1K Vol.
49%
Yes 50.0¢No 52.0¢
··
–
August
P $2.1K Vol.
8.5%
Yes 9.0¢No 92.0¢
··
–
July
P $6.2K Vol.
1.4%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.0¢
··
–
Before Jul 1, 2027
K $802.3K Vol.
–
··
69.5%
Yes 70.0¢No 31.0¢
Before Apr 1, 2027
K $359.9K Vol.
–
··
62.5%
Yes 63.0¢No 38.0¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
K $1.3M Vol.
–
··
43%
Yes 44.0¢No 58.0¢
Before Aug 15, 2026
K $123.4K Vol.
–
··
4.5%
Yes 5.0¢No 96.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
K $2.2M Vol.
–
··
0.5%
Yes 1.0¢No 100.0¢
Before Aug 1, 2026
K $4.8M Vol.
–
··
0.5%
Yes 1.0¢No 100.0¢

Arbitrage opportunities

Expires in 2 months • Oct 1, 2026

October

YES on Polymarket14.0¢NO on Kalshi83.0¢

P $1.5K|K $1.1M

1.32%-2.74% net3.09% gross

Estimates from latest executable asks; fees, slippage and settlement rules vary. Not guaranteed profit.