PMXTERMINALBeta

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

6 outcomes · 2 on both platforms · $3.3M total volume · Weather & Science

Price history - top outcomes

CandidatePolymarketAlphaKalshi
1
P $508.9K Vol.K $12.3K Vol.
33.5%
Yes 34.0¢No 67.0¢
9.0%13%
22.5%
Yes 25.0¢No 80.0¢
5
P $778.8K Vol.K $172.9K Vol.
0.6%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.6¢
27%28%
28.1%
Yes 28.1¢No 72.0¢
2
P $369.0K Vol.
62%
Yes 63.0¢No 39.0¢
··
–
3
P $474.0K Vol.
2.8%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.3¢
··
–
4
P $478.9K Vol.
0.9%
Yes 1.0¢No 99.3¢
··
–
6 or lower
P $490.1K Vol.
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
··
–

Arbitrage opportunities

Expires in 5 months • Dec 31, 2026

1

YES on Kalshi25.0¢NO on Polymarket67.0¢

P $508.9K|K $12.3K

7.07%-7.98% net8.70% gross

Estimates from latest executable asks; fees, slippage and settlement rules vary. Not guaranteed profit.